Amazon has announced their slick new reading device Kindle, which will let you buy and download books to read on its e-paper screen.
I was pretty impressed with the specs, but I think $400 - not including any books - is way too steep, and that the next-gen model might be worth considering more seriously.
Amazon is obviously treating Kindle as a catalyst for further revenue from e-book sales. They’re also betting that people will see the device itself as a must-have. There are two problems with this ambitious approach, though:
1. If people are going to buy Kindle in order to gain access to content, the price of the device itself should not be prohibitive.
The Wii comes to mind - with the Wii, you get access to Nintendo’s reasonably priced back catalogue of games going back to NES and TurboGrafx 16. These games are reasonably cheap (as is Kindle content), and the system is not prohibitively expensive (unlike Kindle, which is more than the Wii despite being a far simpler device).
2. If the device is to be seen as a game-changer, a killer device, and thus worth $400, it has to be nothing short of awesome, out of the box.
This means it has to transform the content people already own, rather than requiring them to buy more stuff before doing anything. The iPod caught on so quickly because people had been accumulating MP3s for years. If you had to throw down four bills for an iPod, then shell out another three grand to fill it up, it wouldn’t have become the ubiquitous, must-have device it is.
Since Kindle, unlike the Wii and the iPod, lacks both of these potential paths to greatness, I have to predict that it’ll become a cool toy for wealthy, early-adopter geeks, but won’t catch on in the mainstream.
This is a major blunder on Amazon’s part, because they could have addressed these shortcomings in several ways.
First, they could offer free e-books to Kindle owners who’ve already purchased dead tree editions of the same titles from Amazon. Since I’ve been ordering from Amazon for nearly a decade, this would be no small incentive (especially since I’ve come nowhere close to reading all of the books I’ve purchased). Just as the iPod works with people’s existing MP3 collections, Kindle should add some value to people’s existing library of books (at least the ones they’ve purchased from Amazon).
Second, they could include free e-books in the purchase price of Kindle, or perhaps spread out the cost of the device through a one-year subscription, which would include book credits each month, the way Audible does. I’d be much more likely to pay $100 upfront and $30 a month for a year if I got a few books up front, a few books a month, and didn’t have to come up with $400 just to get started.
Third, they could add value to existing content (the way the iPod made MP3s portable) by supporting PDFs and other formats people already own content in (though Kindle does have some support for .txt files, as well as free Wikipedia access).
Because Amazon has failed to give Kindle these advantages, I predict that it will be seen as a good first step, but ultimately flop. It sold out, to the early adopters, in the first few hours, but I don’t think it’ll go much further, at least not without significant changes in pricing or content support.